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PICK PERFORMANCE
Updated Saturday March 21, after the second round.
Pick performance is now available.  And as usual it is very interesting.  I was so motivated by the pick performance page, I'm adding a top ten list of the games that will decide this pool.  The list below 1) excludes opening round game, 2) is a formula percentage of non favorite picks multiplied by the number of teams picked for that game.

For example, 12 people picket Gonzaga to win the championship.  That means 28, or 70% did not.  There are 11 different teams picked to win the championship.  So 11 x .7 = 3.30.  That is the PIF (pool influence factor... just made that up.  Kinda like it).

David Letterman was not available to do this years list, so you'll have to settle for a less entertaining David L.

#10 - South Sweet Sixteen: Tennessee is the favorite
Tennessee is the favorite to win this Sweet Sixteen matchup.  Eighteen people picked them to win.  Less than half the pool.  Villanova comes in with 16 picks.  The other six picks are split between Ohio State, Michigan and Colorado State.  

#9 - Midwest Round 2: Iowa is the favorite
Well that is problematic to say the least.  Iowa was eliminated in the first round.  They were on 23 sheets, a little more than half.  Ten of the other picks went to Providence.  Those folks, or the four who took Richmond look primed to make a big jump forward.

#8 - Midwest Sweet 16: Auburn is the favorite
Auburn is picked on 19 sheets to advance out of the sweet sixteen in the Midwest.  That is well balanced with sixteen sheets for Wisconsin.  Look for this game to split the pool nearly in half.  Other picks go to LSU and USC (those aren't gonna pay out) and Miami, FL.

#7 - South Elite 8: Arizona is the favorite
Like the pick above, Arizona is on 19 sheets.  Tennessee and Villanova each have nine picks each.  This is for a trip to the final four, so point values start to escalate at this point.  Houston and Illinois split account for the remaining three picks, two and one.

#6 - Semi Final: Arizona is the favorite
It is not surprising that a semi final game is on this list.  Hint, all the final four games are in this list.  But to see one outside the top five is intriguing.  As I write this, I have not prescanned the list for what's to come, so I'm also curious.

For this game, Arizona is on 13 sheets, well less than half.  Eight different teams are picked in this spot.  So this game will have a lot of losers (could have figured that out by looking at the entry list) But someone(s) will take a big leap forward with this game.

#5 -  West Sweet 16: Duke is the favorite
So far we've spent a lot of time on the right side of the bracket.  But now that we get to the top five, we venture left.  Duke is picked on 21 sheets to win this game.  But the other 19 picks are spread across four other teams, led by Texas Tech with 13.

#4 - Semi Final: Gonzaga is the favorite
Given Gonzaga is the overall favorite, I was surprised this was ahead of the other semi final game.  If Gonzaga wins this game, the impact is minimized by the fact eight of the other picks went to the already eliminated Kentucky.  That only leave 13 other picks, valuable picks if they win, split among Duke, Baylor, Purdue and North Carolina.

#3 - Midwest Elite 8: Kansas is the favoite
The second of three elite eight games on the list (oops, I just tipped my hand), Kansas is on 18 sheets.  Less than half.  Auburn is on eleven sheets.  And Wisconsin on six.  Assuming Kansas is playing one of those two teams in the Midwest regional final, it will have a huge impact on who goes into the final four with the lead.

#2 - Championship Game: Gonzaga is the favorite
This is kind of a no brainer, and probably would have been number one if Gonzaga wasn't on such a high percentage (For the championship game) of the sheets.  Gonzaga is on twelve sheets.  Arizona is on seven.  And Duke had five, Kansas four.   After that, it is a pretty flat spread across Auburn, Baylor, Kentu... screw it, North Carolina, Tennessee, Villanova and Wisconsin.  I still content to win this pool you must pick the champion.

#1 - East Elite 8: Kentucky WAS the favorite
So this is a total mess now.  Kentucky was on 19 sheets.  Obviously those are all wrong.  And assuming the winner of this region comes from the other selected teams, this is going to be a huge haul of points for someone.  Baylor has nine selections.  Purdue has seven (somebody put Boilermaker Kook-Aid in the COVID booster), The other picks are split between St. Marys, Murray State, North Carolina and UCLA. 


PICKS BY ROUND, BY TEAM 

Region Seed Team Rd1 Rd2 S16 E8 SF CG Total Picks Points Seleted Points
Earned
Performance
Index
South 9 TCU 23           23 230 230 1000.0
Midwest 11 Iowa State 12 3         15 183 183 1000.0
West 4 Arkansas 34 20 5 1     60 349 335 945.9
Midwest 9 Creighton 21 1         22 221 210 939.2
Midwest 10 Miami FL 18 4 1 1     24 281 261 908.8
Midwest 4 Providence 30 10 2       42 228 210 903.1
South 11 Michigan 23 7 2       32 399 367 887.8
East 8 North Carolina 26 7 4 1 1 1 40 407 356 823.7
South 5 Houston 33 20 5 2 2   62 458 388 777.2
South 2 Villanova 40 34 16 9 4 3 106 556 476 776.1
West 11 Rutgers/Notre Dame 14 3         17 207 168 772.6
West 9 Memphis 30 3 2       35 361 300 770.0
West 12 New Mexico State 10 3         13 172 130 713.8
East 7 Murray State 32 4 2 1     39 333 256 691.8
West 2 Duke 40 31 21 11 6 5 114 645 523 688.9
East 6 Texas 28 7 1       36 263 196 678.2
East 4 UCLA 37 28 11 1     77 466 353 644.5
South 7 Ohio State 25 6 3       34 290 200 599.7
Midwest 12 Richmond 7 4         11 147 91 563.0
West 3 Texas Tech 38 27 13 2     80 417 287 558.2
West 7 Michigan State 32 8 4 1     45 393 256 514.4
East 5 Saint Marys 29 9 4 2     44 307 174 433.8
East 3 Purdue 37 29 11 7 1   85 490 293 401.0
South 4 Illinois 34 16 4 1     55 316 170 392.0
Midwest 3 Wisconsin 38 32 16 6 3 1 96 577 312 275.7
Midwest 1 Kansas 40 39 32 18 10 4 143 759 389 142.5
West 15 CS Fullerton             0 0 0 0.0
West 16 Georgia State             0 0 0 0.0
East 15 St. Peters             0 0 0 0.0
East 16 Norfolk State             0 0 0 0.0
South 14 Longwood             0 0 0 0.0
South 15 Delaware             0 0 0 0.0
South 16 Wright State/Bryant             0 0 0 0.0
Midwest 16 Texas So/TX AM CC             0 0 0 0.0
Midwest 14 Colgate 2           2 30 0 -30.0
East 13 Akron 3           3 42 0 -42.0
East 14 Yale 3           3 45 0 -45.0
West 14 Montana State 2 1         3 46 0 -46.0
Midwest 15 Jacksonville State 2 1         3 49 0 -49.0
South 13 Chattanooga 6           6 84 0 -84.0
East 10 San Fransisco 8           8 88 0 -88.0
West 8 Boise State 10           10 90 0 -90.0
West 13 Vermont 6 2         8 114 0 -114.0
West 10 Davidson 8 1 1       10 115 0 -115.0
South 12 UAB 7 4         11 147 0 -147.0
East 9 Marquette 14 1         15 151 0 -151.0
South 6 Colorado State 17 4 1       22 162 0 -162.0
South 8 Seton Hall 17 1         18 163 0 -163.0
South 10 Loyola Chicago 15           15 165 0 -165.0
Midwest 8 San Diego State 19           19 171 0 -171.0
East 12 Wyoming/Indiana 11 3         14 185 0 -185.0
South 3 Tennessee 40 29 18 9 3 2 101 630 160 -216.0
East 11 Virginia Tech 12 4 2       18 228 0 -228.0
East 1 Baylor 40 32 21 9 5 2 109 487 80 -242.7
Midwest 13 South Dakota State 10 3 1 1 1   16 254 0 -254.0
Midwest 6 LSU 28 5 2       35 258 0 -258.0
Midwest 2 Auburn 38 30 19 11 4 2 104 575 114 -262.7
West 6 Alabama 26 9 1       36 265 0 -265.0
Midwest 7 USC 22 5 2 2     31 279 0 -279.0
West 5 Connecticut 30 15         45 285 0 -285.0
South 1 Arizona 40 39 31 19 13 7 149 821 197 -384.0
Midwest 5 Iowa 33 23 5 1     62 424 0 -424.0
West 1 Gonzaga 40 37 33 25 19 12 166 1004 191 -622.8
East 2 Kentucky 40 36 24 19 8 1 128 800 0 -800.0


ONE SHINING PICK



First, please forgive my inexcusable immaturity regarding the image.  There was a time when I was younger, I believed my body would stop growing (taller) and my mind would continually expand.  I now understand while my body continues to grow (wider), it is my mind that is perpetually stuck at 14 years old.

One Shining Pick are the picks in the pool that only the bravest had the courage to take.  Get one of these rights, and you will pick up points on most other sheets in the pool.  But the odds are against you and the reality for most of these picks is they will lose their luster soon after the ball is tipped. 



I don't really have anything to say about the One Shining Picks this year.   I actually think they are very good, with a few notable exceptions.  I think a couple of these may actually pay off, and really influence the outcome of the pool. 

I hate to risk jinxing anyone, but I really like the variety of picks in the Elite Eight round.  I can't wait to see how this plays out.





Round 1
none (or nun, in honor of the nun at Loyola Chicago), nada, zip!

Round 2
    
Creighton (David Stubenrauch)
     Davidson (Michael Cutcher 2)
    
Jacksonville State (Susan Weldishofer)
     Marquette (Dewey Gripshover)
     Montana State (Susan Weldishofer)
     Seton Hall (Jonathan Kim 2)

Sweet 16
    
Alabama (Jennifer Harrell)
     Colorado State (Jennifer Harrell)
    
Davidson (Jonathan Kim 3)
    
Miami, FL (Katie Schwegman)
    
South Dakota State (Susan Weldishofer)
    
Texas (John Neltner)

Elite Eight
    
Arkansas (David Woolums)
    
Illinois (David Lamb 2)
     
Iowa (Jonathan Kim 2)
         
Miami, FL (Katie Schwegman)
    
Michigan State (Rob Collins)
     
Murray State (Jennifer Harrell)
         
North Carolina (Susan Weldishofer)
     
South Dakota State (Susan Weldishofer)
     
UCLA (SJ Anneken)

Semi Finals
         
North Carolina (Susan Weldishofer)
      Purude (Jonathan Kim 3)
     
South Dakota State (Susan Weldishofer)

Finals
     
Kentucky (David Lamb)
          North Carolina (Susan Weldishofer)
      Wisconsin (Brad Perry)
   
 
2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Team Tracker
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